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NEWS
Leader in U.S.-Arab Relations Addresses Major Arab World
Think-Tank on Difficulties Facing the New Obama Administration as It Seeks to Change Policy Directions in the Arab World
Washington, DC | November 10, 2008 | www.ncusar.org | Dr. John Duke Anthony, founding President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and an adjunct professor at the Graduate School of Foreign Service's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University as well as at the Department of Defense's Institute for Security Assistance Management, addressed several hundred government, diplomatic, business, and international media representatives at the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on November 9, 2008. The topic was "New Directions and Old Dilemmas for the Obama Administration: The Changing Nature of U.S. Interests in the Arab World and the Stubborn Realities of American Politics."
Dr. Anthony stressed that President-elect Barack Obama "is certain, sooner rather than later, to change the tone and style of United States official actions, attitudes, and positions towards in the Gulf region and the broader Arab and Islamic worlds." He cautioned, however, that "profound changes in American foreign policies of particular interest to Arabs and Muslims, including many Afghans, Iranians, Israelis, Lebanese, Palestinians, Pakistanis, and Syrians, together with citizens of the UAE and its five fellow GCC countries, among others, will come much more slowly." He said that, "despite Obama's substantial election victory, his control of appointments to executive branch policymaking positions, and expanded Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, the presidential honeymoon is likely to be short-lived. This is especially probable," he said, "where energy policy, the American military presences in Iraq and Afghanistan, and relations with Arab and Islamic countries are concerned. " Dr. Anthony cautioned that "it would be wise not to read too much into the departure of numerous prominent neo-conservatives from the executive branch." He emphasized that "individuals supporting their viewpoints in favor of distancing the United States strategically, economically, and politically from the Arab and Islamic worlds will remain active among foreign affairs practitioners, influential lobbies, heavily funded 'think tanks,' and powerful members of Congress in both the Republican minority and the Democratic majority."
Dr. Anthony stated that "early regional challenges confronting the new Obama Administration will be bringing the American military occupation of Iraq to an end in a manner acceptable to the greater number of Iraqis. Only then," he stressed, "would the United States thereby honor the Iraqi people's legitimate internationally-recognized right to their national sovereignty, political independence, and territorial integrity." He said additional challenges would be to "re-start stalled diplomacy aimed at achieving a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict; deal with efforts by Tehran to continue its uranium enrichment processes that could enable it to produce nuclear weapons; help secure, strengthen, and sustain stability in Pakistan; and address the multifaceted need to improve the situation in Afghanistan." He acknowledged the continuing vital role of fossil-based fuels in the world's economy. In so doing, he emphasized "the inescapable reality of international energy interdependence for the foreseeable future." In claiming that neither the administration nor either of the two presidential candidates has leveled with the American people in this regard, he faulted all three for issuing repeated statements that have veered between irresponsible warnings about worst-case scenarios of U.S. total foreign energy dependence and unrealistically raised expectations of energy independence.
"The new American head of state," Dr. Anthony said, "will face strong pressures to place the domestic economic agenda above foreign policy initiatives when in reality the two are inextricably linked at many different levels." He stated that "among numerous undeniable truths are the pivotal role of Arab cooperation and assistance in support of restoring trust and credibility to world financial markets and the international monetary system as well as the mutual benefits to be gained between energy producers and consumers as both seek to increase and diversify energy sources while managing fuel consumption more effectively. Given the realities of oil and gas production and growing international competition for the world's finite and depleting hydrocarbon energy supplies," he said, "President Obama has no choice but to make the case that continued and enhanced Arab-U.S. cooperation is essential to renewed global economic growth." He said that, "registering progress in this interrelated and politically sensitive energy, economic, and national security area of public policy will not come easily or rapidly – such things seldom do."
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Dr. Anthony is a long-time specialist on the Arab world and a frequent visitor to the region. The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations was established in 1983 as a non-profit, non-governmental educational organization based in Washington, D.C. This year the National Council celebrates the silver anniversary of its work to strengthen and expand U.S.-Arab relationships in the public policy areas of strategy and economic, political, commercial, and defense cooperation as well as education and people-to-people affairs.
For additional information about the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and Dr. John Duke Anthony see www.ncusar.org, and for additional information about the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research see www.ecssr.ae
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